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The initial value of Metatags was high, because the SERPs had not matured to a point that they could analyze keywords, density, deception and user-dumbness effectively. Now that the SERPs can index and assign value without ambiguous human input, Metatags are mostly useless.
Tagging will have a similar trajectory to it. In part because Tagging is just Metatags extended past WebPages and into files and data objects of many types. Eventually the SERPs will be able to do most of it for us.
But the lessening of value over time will be much longer term for Tagging, because it has at least three mitigating differences:
1) Tagging has an intrinsic value to users: an easy way to categorize free-form digital information. Wow, is this powerful. Having a database and info architecture background, I am amazed how easily Tagging lets me assign relationships and then search for items – all without putting everything into a strict file system or naming convention. And importantly, the solution is accessible to the non-tech masses that.
2) Tagging has personal value – even when the SERPs lose interest, it still helps me organize my personal information in ways that are effective for me.
3) Machine Tagging of non-textual information isn’t here yet. When the SERPs can grab my image/video/audio files, scan them for objects and concepts, and then machine-tag this information, they will be part of the way there.
As it is, I think Tagging will be here for a while, because of its value in enhancing search (both direct and tangential) and its accessibility to users.
-Jeff